It's been a long time since I've read an argument as cogent and as interesting as this one by Glen Tomlinson appearing in MarketingWeb. It's about the future of big and small social media sites. He's saying the biggest strength of the big sites — the ease with which people have access to the technology and can join — will be their downfall because people can just as easily opt out when the new or next big thing comes along. He's saying the big sites are a nightmare for marketing/advertising people. He's predicting that smaller places that join like-minded people over common interests or concerns will emerge as people on big sites have less and less in common with the masses. And throughout it all he drops some factoids of great interest that only make his assertions that much more credible.

I wish he were wrong, but you know what? I think he's right. He is especially right when he says the following:

One of the things that surprises me is how few advertisers and marketers have embraced the essence of what makes social networking so unique compared to almost every other media form; the ability to create conversations between individuals. Most marketers do not understand the environment or culture they want to market to and think that forcing themselves on individuals demanding to be heard, is how they are going to win market share.

If you've tried Facebook as I have, or MySpace (which I've browsed), Mr. Tomlinson's point about why people want to belong to a group has to ring true, too. Honestly, I don't plan to re-represent everything in his long article, but this is perhaps the most important idea as far as I'm concerned:

If we take a closer look at why people in general enjoy social networking, we need to understand the compulsion behind that desire to belong. The Social Comparison Theory (Festinger, 1954) describes an individual's need to look externally to assess and judge their own opinions and abilities and gauge how they compare to the group… When a social network includes every walk of life under one roof, that sense of belonging begins to feel meaningless.

Please read the article if you have time. I think it is a major contribution to understanding the here and now — and the future — of social media.

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